36xRacing

Was 2022 Ross Chastain a one-time thing? The Melon Man was eliminated after the round of 12 in 2023 and missed the 2024 playoffs. While his playoff Kansas win ensured last year wasn’t a total dud, Chastain had his worst stats of the NextGen era. Trackhouse is rebranding and refreshing with SVG joining the team, let’s see if they can reboot the on-track performance too. It’s worth mentioning that Suarez would appear to be on the hot seat well before Chastain.

Austin Cindric put up a decent fight in the playoffs, returning to the round of 12 for the second time in his career. Expectations will be high while driving for three-time defending champion Team Penske. While he may be lowest on the Penske totem pole, it’s not panic time just yet. Cindric hit his 100^th career start at Pocono, a benchmark I have previously (and will continue to) write essays about. Honestly, I expect a breakout season. I’ll throw Cindric in my round of 8. (Do I dare mention that Talladega is in the round of 8,,, and Penske dominance at fall Phoenix… Oh god should I make Cindric my title pick??)

This must be his final season, right? That Richmond win debacle was disappointing, but not unexpected. Typical Dillon win (fire emoji). If I was RCR, I would have used this seat to get Jesse Love some Cup time while Kyle Busch is still around. This car is going to run in the 20s and 30s all year anyway (double fire emoji)! RCR is heading for a scenario where they’ll have two very new drivers in their two cars at the same time. Not a good call.

I’m not a Gragson fan at all. But I can still say I was impressed with his performance in 2024. He grabbed a handful of top tens at a variety of tracks. The Front Row stock is rising, the Gragson stock is rising… Drew Blickensderfer as crew chief. A year of quiet growth could be great for Gragson. He’ll hit the 100 career start mark this season. Looking down the line and thinking we could see a 2026 breakout year??

Surely the 5 camp has learned the playoff format by this point. It honestly feels like the awkward Indy 500 rain delay mess killed the “year of Larson” that we were anticipating…? If there is one team to shut down the Penske dynasty, it’s Larson and Daniels. Don’t choke in the round of 8, Kyle! (Oh lord, this darn Talladega race.)

Brad got back to victory lane! Good for him and RFK. SHR blowing up and shuffling the driver/charter rosters may have bought Brad an extra season or two of driving. Owner Brad will take over soon – but as long as driver Brad continues to match teammate results, keep driving!

Spire is… weird. I’m sure Haley will compete for a random win here or there – that seems to be where Spire has elevated themselves to these days. Not a playoff team, just a ‘see what happens’ sort of year in my eyes…?

It’s KFB at the end of the day, so who knows. Busch could win the Daytona 500 to start a four-win season, and we wouldn’t be too surprised. He could also drop off a cliff and set up a 2026 Cup retirement tour (is he still planning on doing that truck season with Brexton?). There were close calls but ultimately an inability to secure Ws in 2024. That makes me think we’re starting to slide off the cliff, maybe we’re not in a free fall yet, but we’re mighty close.

Why can I not tell you a single gosh darn thing about Chase Elliott’s 2024. He won a race but like…? Elliott had a 70% top ten rate in the playoffs, a solid Hendrick Motorsports effort. Chase will make the playoffs. He should win multiple races again. I don’t see him as a title threat, but I do think he’ll have a rebound season.

Truly no comment on this front.

Denny Hamlin will retire a non-champion. Hamlin has been better in the NextGen era than his generational… colleagues(?) like Truex and Busch. Denny will win, maybe the 500. But I think Hamlin’s title hunts are lost to the Larsons, Bells, and Blaneys of the series now…

YRB has quickly put himself in the top-tier of playoff-era drivers. If a few things fall differently at Phoenix in the fall – or maybe if his teammate doesn’t complete a fuel mileage win in the round of 8 – Blaney could have been the first back-to-back champ in the elimination era. Chase Elliott (2020-2022) is the most recent driver to make three-straight championship fours. Blaney is another driver that could strike with that Talladega round of 8 race.

Another Kaulig entry I don’t know what to write about… Something I’ll mention here is a lowkey strategy in the playoff era that is now becoming more intentional… Winning one race locks a playoff spot! Just one win! Go find it! And if that can come at a road course, good for you. Unfortunately for Allmendinger, SVG appears to be entering the fold as a road course ace – not to mention that the rest of the field continues to get better on the type of track where AJ has thrived previously. Non-playoff year expected here.

Maybe it was a disappointing 2024 for Buescher and team, but things don’t look too bad. A near-win at spring Darlington, a too little too late win at Watkins Glen in the playoffs… Buescher will be okay. Expectations would be at least one win and a return to the playoffs.

It’s hard to put expectations on someone with such a dramatic seat change. Jumping off of the sinking SHR ship onto the sky-high JGR squad is a mighty leap. Expectations would be to win (maybe multiple times) but, to be fair, Truex didn’t win in 2024. Briscoe DID win at SHR though. One/two-win season for Briscoe as he settles in.

There are 11 drivers that have multiple championship four appearances since this format was introduced for 2014. All of them are champions except for Denny Hamlin, William Byron, and Christopher Bell. Bell has struggled to win in the playoffs, just three in his career so far (those wins have come in some clutch situations though, I’ll give him that). Of the 11 drivers to make multiple trips to the final four, only Byron (1) has fewer playoff wins than Bell. Bell was robbed of a third-straight championship four spot by a Paul Wolfe #22 strategy call and then a Chevrolet manipulation mess at Martinsville. I don’t know if 2025 will be his year but, a Bell title is on the way.

Absolutely zero expectations for Josh Berry – it feels like it’s exactly what he needs. Let Berry cook, let the Wood Brothers cook. Harrison Burton was not the man for the job, it appears. The Clash was a good start for Berry, let’s see what happens this year. Like Gragson, a quiet year of learning and development post-SHR is a success.

It is an odd-numbered year so I wouldn’t expect much from the defending champ. While Logano has owned the playoff era, the odd-numbered years always seem to go awry. Is a winless season a possibility? Sure. But Logano should win a couple races and float around the playoffs – as the trends (Larry Mac voice) tell us, no serious threat to be expected.

I’m hoping Bubba Wallace can have a reboot and reset with Charles Denike taking over on the pit box. Teammate Tyler Reddick had a fantastic 2024 so the pressure is mounting. It’s possible for Wallace to win the Daytona 500 – or another early season intermediate track race. An early season win would be great for a driver and team that runs well but seems to slip when the pressure mounts. Wallace should make the playoffs, less than that would be disappointing.

I can’t believe William Byron made it back to the championship four. I mean, I can, but like… The story with Willy-B is to win a few in the spring and then,,, meh. Bell and Reddick are missing about 30% of the Cup experience that Byron has – but I think most people would put those two Toyota drivers higher than Byron on a rankings list. Byron will make the playoffs sure – but he won’t ever win a title. (Wow did I just say that? Is that bold or just saying what we’re all thinking? Let me know.)

Attention! Attention! Inbound Todd Gilliland breakout season! Driving for Front Row probably means this won’t include more than a win at most – but Gilliland is on a trajectory to have a fantastic 2025. The career path for him right now is looking like: 1. Cook in this Front Row car, maybe win a race or two(?) 2. Continue to develop 3. Slip into the next top-tier Ford available (retiring Keselowski #6 sometime soon…??) Really excited to see what Gilliland does this year. Like I said for Gragson – driver and team stocks are both on the rise.

Meh. I would have liked to see 23XI get both cars a little better before adding a third car (RFK!). Herbst does not feel like a serious threat. The pocketbooks seem to have worked their magic here. Interested to see some Herbst-Heim head-to-head comparisons in a few years. Hopefully the third car doesn’t hurt 23XI. No expectations for Herbst this year. (The ROTY battle w SVG is going to be my favorite silly subplot this season.)

Zane Smith is back home after a weird outing with Spire (I’m always throwing the “weird” label at Spire) last year. Lowest expectations of the three Front Row drivers – all looking for a quiet development year.

A superspeedway top five and a pair of random top tens.

The Toyota move does not look good at all for Legacy Motor Club. This is bad. Nemechek is not a Cup talent, unfortunately. There was an ownership shakeup – so Jimmie Johnson will likely have more control. Will that change anything? Regardless, Heim Cup Time is coming – Toyota will need to make room. Maybe this 42 car is the place for Heim to sit in 2026 while they wait on Hamlin to retire.

Can we go ahead and start drafting the Erik Jones career recap video essays? Geez what a career. Legacy needs to get their finishing results out of the 30s and into the 20s. It’s dire. Jones’ talent is not to doubt or blame, we know he has winning abilities. A win this year would be fantastic (shocking) – but not expected or needed. Just run /okay/ again,, please,, it’s a tough watch.

Wow, okay, I didn’t see a 23XI championship four appearance on the way! 23XI is expanding and that could present challenges. Reddick missing the four this year wouldn’t be a failure, maybe it’s even expected. But a few wins, a round of 8 run, and continued growth from Reddick would be under the ‘expectations’ banner. I’m mildly concerned about 23XI’s short track program, they can’t seem to get to that winning level. Anyway, that’s a 23XI subplot note to myself to check at the end of this early-career Reddick season.

I decided to look at the team’s new website as a vibe check…. This might be bad. For every team like Front Row moving up, someone must move down. I do like this “proud partners” thing on their website where the words are going around a track. That’s cute.

Too good to be fired – not good enough to win a title. Someone has to be the number four Hendrick driver, and it is Bowman. He will win a couple races (Bowman hasn’t won multiple in a season since ’21) and find himself eliminated in a non-dramatic way after the round of 12. Textbook Bowman.

I’m trying to write all of this in one day. No comment here. Remember how Haley went to Rick Ware Racing because he thought they were on the rise? What’s he doing now, eh?

Hello everyone, welcome to the Ty Gibbs breakout season! Two wins at least. Lack of ‘serious’ playoff experience will (maybe) “shock” eliminate him after the round of 12. Someone will get a clutch win or something that knocks him out after some decent points days that aren’t enough to advance (I’m thinking Cindric ’24 playoff vibes).

Another SHR refugee with low/no expectations. I would expect a Keselowski retirement before a Preece hot seat move. He could win on a short track!

Truly a goofy move for McDowell. What’s his play here? Good add for Spire. Maybe they can take the momentum from Front Row’s growth, if McDowell really was as vital to that as we all seem to think. Haley-McDowell-Hocevar is honestly a stacked roster for a mid-field team. Surely someone in that group gets a win and playoff spot.

Hocevar isn’t to 50 starts yet! I’m sure some people are calling for him to win this year – probably won’t happen. Honestly, the Cup Series is semi-stacked right now. This is beyond 2025 thinking and a random thing to say but I’m going to just put this down for the heck of it. Whatever year is the first sans Busch-Hamlin-Keselowski season (’27 or later, I would assume), Hocevar will make the round of 8. Boom.

Okay so like he’s going to win a race, right? Bookend the Chicago Street course? Dominate Watkins Glen? Make the playoffs and round of 12/16 elimination? Solid first year of Cup Series racing. (Will it be enough to justify shortening the Suarez leash….??)

This feels make or break. If ONE driver is having a make-or-break year, it is Daniel Suarez. The Atlanta win and round of 12 return was enough to kick Zane Smith to the curb. But. Zilisch is on the way. Look out, Daniel!